纽约时报：川普翻脸快，中国扛得住

点击：  作者：Keith Bradsher    来源：英文联播  发布时间:2018-06-22 08:06:15

 

       As Trump Escalates Trade Fight, China Can Take the Hit

      Thanks to President Trump’s tariffs, Americans will soon be paying more for a wide variety of Chinese-made goods, and some American customers may end up buying from other countries instead.

        特朗普总统的关税政策，很快会让美国人花更多的钱购买各类中国产品，有些美国客户可能会选择其他国家的商品。

        For now, China can live with that.

        可暂时看来，中国倒无所谓。

      The tariffs the White House announced on Friday will have little immediate impact on China, despite the size of the $50 billion in goods involved and the invective the move set off from Chinese official news media. 

       白宫上周五宣布要征收的关税对中国的直接影响微乎其微，虽然500亿美元商品规模不小，中国官方新闻媒体也骂得挺凶。

     Mr. Trump’s tariffs are ultimately too small and narrowly targeted to seriously affect China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the United States to sell its products.

       说到底，特朗普先生要征收的关税太少、太局限了，没法对一个体量接近13万亿美元的经济体造成严重影响，中国已不再严重依赖出口，况且还可以轻松找到美国以外的其他地区销售产品。

 

      The tariffs could spread, of course. Mr. Trump escalated his trade fight with China on Monday, saying the administration would identify another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that could face 10 percent tariffs. The president criticized China’s actions, saying it was determined to keep the United States “at a permanent and unfair disadvantage.” The question is whether Mr. Trump will make good on his threats.

       当然，关税范围还可以进一步扩大。周一，特朗普先生升级了贸易斗法，表示政府要另行制定对价值2000亿美元的中国商品征收10%的关税。总统批评了中国的行为，表示中国决心让美国“永远处于不公平的劣势地位”。问题在于，特朗普先生是否会兑现他的威胁。

       China could retaliate with its own tariffs on the United States’ far smaller exports in the other direction across the Pacific. Plus, it could impose punitive measures against American companies doing business here.

       中国可以对美国出口商品征收报复性关税，而从另一个方向跨过太平洋的商品要少得多。另外，中国还可以对在华美国公司施加惩罚性措施。

     Any measures carry the risk that they could disrupt the global supply chain in sudden and unexpected ways, or could damage confidence among investors in building factories and other businesses in either country.

     任何措施都存在以难以预料的方式突然破坏全球供应链的风险，或是损害在两国建厂和做生意的投资者的信心。

      Already there are signs of strains in the global economy from the broader trade tensions, weakness that China and the United States are both better positioned to weather than other nations.

      全球经济已经因这种贸易对立关系出现紧张迹象，而中美两国都比其他国家更抗得住。

       Still, the absence of immediate impact could also give both sides breathing room to calm down.

       另外，并未立即产生影响，这也让双方有一个冷静的空间。

      Each has its reasons for ducking a fight. The United States may need China’s help to keep its uneasy peace with North Korea. Beijing has stickier issues, like breaking the country’s addiction to debt-fueled economic growth without hurting growth. Already some indicators show signs of a slowdown, though if it worsens significantly Beijing may find Mr. Trump’s tariffs could make a convenient scapegoat.

       双方都有理由休战。美国需要中国的帮助，保住与朝鲜来之不易的和平。中国则有更为棘手的问题，中国要在不损害增长的情况下转变该国对债务经济增长模式的依赖。中国已经有一些经济放缓的迹象，尽管如果严重恶化，北京正好将特朗普先生的关税政策当做替罪羊。

     China in particular risks being distracted. Its point person on tackling debt, a senior economic official named Liu He, has also been deeply involved in trade negotiations, though Chinese officials say Beijing has the bandwidth to handle both.

        中国尤其容易分心。解决债务问题的牵头人是负责经济的高官刘鹤，他同时也深入参与贸易谈判，尽管中国官员表示北京有能力同时解决两个问题。

     “The strain on the top leadership as it tries to fend off a trade war with the U.S. as well as de-risk China’s financial sector is considerable,” said Diana Choyleva, the chief economist with Enodo Economics, a London research firm specializing in China. “They cannot afford to drop the ball on either front.”

        “要抵御同美国的贸易战，同时要化解中国金融部门风险，这给领导层带来的压力是巨大的，”研究中国的英国公司Enodo Economics首席经济学家戴安娜·乔伊列娃说。“两头都不能失误。”

 

      For both sides, the issue has become far more than a struggle over nuts-and-bolts economics. It has become a battle over which country will dominate the high-wage, high-skill industries of tomorrow. Washington and Beijing alike see those industries as essential to protecting national security and to creating jobs.

       对两国而言，问题远不止于对具体经济细节的争斗，这是一场战事，决定了哪个国家将主导高工资、高技术的明日产业。华盛顿和北京都认为这些产业对保护国家安全和创造就业而言至关重要。

      The Trump administration is pushing hard for curbs on China’s $300 billion government program to bolster these industries, called Made in China 2025. Beijing aims to make the country a leader in the manufacturing of advanced products, including computer microchips and commercial aircraft. The Trump administration’s statement announcing tariffs managed to mention the Chinese industrial policy program no fewer than five times. But China appears just as determined to preserve the program. 

       特朗普政府大力推动遏制中国3000亿美元的政府产业振兴计划“中国制造2025”。北京旨在让该国成为先进产品制造业的领导者，这些产业包括计算机芯片和商用飞机。特朗普政府的征收关税声明中，不下五次提到了中国的产业政策项目。但中国打定决心要推行这一计划。

      And the trade issue has become so high profile that the Chinese public has come to expect that Beijing will push back hard against the Trump administration’s trade measures.

       另外，贸易问题如此高调，中国公众都期待北京能强硬回怼特朗普政府的贸易措施。

      “This pressure will be high,” said Tu Xinquan, the director of the China Institute of World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing. “There is no way to move back.”

       “压力很大，”世界贸易组织研究所主任屠新泉说。“没有回头路。”

       While the American tariffs could hurt specific Chinese industries, they will probably do little to hit China’s overall growth.

      美国的关税会对中国特定产业造成危害，但对中国整体增长可能影响不大。

      Under the tariffs announced on Friday, American buyers must pay 25 percent of the wholesale cost of Chinese-made goods when they hit American docks. The tariffs will ultimately be levied on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, including electric cars and aircraft navigational equipment.

      周五宣布的关税措施中，美国买家将在中国产品到岸时多支付25%的批发价。关税最终将涉及价值500亿美元的中国出口商品，包括电动汽车、飞机导航设备。

       While $50 billion sounds like a lot, that represents just 0.4 percent of the Chinese economy. The details suggest the impact may be even less.

        500亿美元听起来挺多，可只有中国经济的0.4%，仔细分析，影响可能比这还小。

      The tariff level, 25 percent, is fairly small compared with those imposed by previous presidents. President Barack Obama put a 35 percent penalty on Chinese-made car- and light-truck tires during his first year in office, President George W. Bush imposed rates of as much as 30 percent on imported steel during his second year in office, while President Ronald Reagan imposed a 100 percent toll on some Japanese electronics near the end of his second term. All those were eventually dropped.

         相比前几届总统征收的关税，25%甚至还更少一些。执政第一年，贝拉克·奥巴马总统对中国生产的汽车和轻轨轮胎征收了35%的关税，小布什第二个任期中对中国钢铁产品征收了高达30%的关税，罗纳德·里根第二个任期即将结束时对日本电子产品征收100%的费用。所有这些最终都降下去了。

        Some American buyers of Chinese goods may simply choose to pay the newly imposed tariffs rather than find new suppliers elsewhere. 

        某些购买中国商品的美国消费者可能干脆就支付了新征收的关税，而非寻找其他新的供应商。

     Brad Setser, a Treasury official in the Obama administration who is now an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that China’s exports to the United States in the affected categories could easily be halved by the tariffs. But they would not disappear entirely, as some Chinese products would still be competitive in terms of cost.

        奥巴马政府执政时期的财政部官员、外交关系委员会经济学家布拉德·赛斯特说，受影响部门的中国对美出口额可能因关税而减半，但不会完全消失，因为某些中国产品可能在成本上仍然具有竞争力。

       Some of the same goods could probably be sold to other countries at slightly lower prices, further limiting the effect on the Chinese economy, Mr. Setser said. Moreover, China’s exports could grow in other areas to offset any drop. Its exports to the United States are already increasing by more than $50 billion each year, and more than 90 percent of China’s exports to the United States are not covered by the tariffs.

       部分商品可能会以更低的价格销往其他国家，这进一步限制了对中国经济造成的影响，赛斯特说。另外，中国出口在其他地区取得的增长，可以弥补这部分损失。中国对美出口已经每年增长超过500亿美元了，且超过九成的中国对美出口商品不受关税影响。

       “Even with tariffs on one-tenth of total imports from China, overall imports from China would likely rise,” Mr. Setser said.

       “即便对十分之一的中国出口商品征收关税，从中国进口商品的总量可能还会增加，”赛斯特说。

        The tariffs could have a longer-term effect on China, however.

然而，关税会对中国产生更加长期的影响。

       Devised as essentially a pre-emptive strike against Chinese subsidies in the Made in China 2025 program, the Trump tariffs could limit eventual sales from these industries. And with the European Union also protesting the Made in China 2025 program, those exports to Europe could suffer, too.

       特朗普的关税政策旨在对“中国制造2025”计划中的补贴政策给予先发制人的打击，这可以限制这些部门的产品销量。由于欧盟也反对“中国制造2025”，对欧出口可能也会受到影响。

       Longer term, the tariffs could spur American companies to move their factories elsewhere. But companies have been reluctant so far to move, as China’s world-class transportation system and well-trained work force still make it highly competitive in all but the lowest-skill, lowest-wage industries.

       从长期看，关税会刺激美国公司将工厂转移到其他地区。但目前公司还不愿意走，中国有世界级的交通系统和训练有素的工人，这让中国依然具有高度竞争力，除了那些最低端、工资水平最低的产业。

       On the flip side, the tariffs could help the Chinese government take the heat if the broader economy starts to falter. The economy could slow further as Beijing intensifies debt reduction efforts. Chinese leaders could blame Washington for the slowdown instead.

       可反过来说，如果大的经济形势开始转坏，关税倒能是个说辞。北京进一步削减债务，导致经济增长进一步放缓，但中国指责华盛顿造成了经济放缓。

      While American and European business have long criticized China for not living up to its promises on trade, Chinese officials point to significant moves to free up its limits on foreign businesses since Mr. Trump was elected. These include the removal of what had been a 25 percent limit on foreign investment in Chinese banks. China also plans to lower its tariffs on imported cars.

       尽管美国和欧洲企业一直批评中国没有履行贸易承诺，自特朗普当选以来，中国官员说要放松对外企的限制，包括取消外资对中国银行投资不超过25%的限制。中国还计划降低对进口汽车的关税。

       “They’ve done the things they said,” said Andrew Polk, a co-founder of Trivium/China, a Beijing economic consulting firm.

        “他们说到做到，”位于北京的经济咨询公司“三艺/中国”的共同创始人安德鲁·波尔克说。

 

　　（来源： 英文联播）

 

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