你知道，昨天中国领导人公开表示对借给我们的钱“有些”担忧(台下大笑)，说“有可能”我们还不了。我想他们不只是“有些”担忧，这只是公开说法，想象一下他们私下会怎么看？他们一定知道我们不会还这笔钱，不可能给中国人还这笔钱，这是绝对不可能的。 Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a littleconcerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won’t pay themback. I’m sure they’re a lot more than just a little concerned, because that’s what they said publicly. Imagine what they’re saying privately.Because they know we’re not going to.pay them back. Of course we’re not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It’s impossible. We can’t. We can’t possibly.
想象一下，某天总统奥巴马，对着数万亿美国民众，发表一次公开的电视演说。他这样说道：“亲爱的美国同胞们，今天非常不幸地，我给你们带来了一个坏消息。政府决定对美国普通民众大幅加税；那些仍然没有失业的人，将为此支付更高的个人所得税；政府将全面削减社会福利，仍然没有实施的各种福利措施将彻底取消；我原先制定的所有计划，包括全民教育、医疗保障、自主能源，所有这些计划将被无限期搁置。因为中国人要我们还钱！（台下长时间狂笑）我们借的实在是太多了，全世界妇孺皆知（台下笑）。欠债还钱，天经地义。所以我们必须勒紧裤腰带给中国人还钱！（台下大笑）” Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.He’11 give a national televised address and say, “My fellow Americans, I’ve got alittle news for you today. We’re going to have to have a massive, across-the-boardtax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job isgoing to have to pay much higher income taxes.”“And, as a matter of fact, we’re going to have to cut Social Security across theboard. Forget the Social Security check, we’re going to have to reduce it. Andremember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody andenergy independence, we got to put all those plans on hold, because the CHineseneed their money.”“We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we’re good for our debts. THeyworked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we’re going to pay itback. And that’s going to require a big sacrifice on our part.”
大家认为这样的事可能发生吗？别开玩笑了。我们更应该对中国人说：“你们是食利者！放高利贷者！我们需要修改游戏规则（笑），我们要打破债务枷锁！你们明知我们还不了，还借给我们那么多钱！（台下大笑）这不是我们的错！” Does anyone think that we’re going to do that？What are they, kidding me?Do you know what we’re going to tell the Chinese？We’re going to say, “You guys are predators, predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need acramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can’t pay it back. It’s not our fault. ”
中国人自己很清楚，他们无法参与我们的政治选举，我们为什么还要在意中国人怎么想？华盛顿难道会得罪选民，去取悦非选民？ The Chinese know this. The Chinese, they can’t even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think？We’re going to tax voters to pay non-voters？
中国人很清楚，我们不可能还他们钱，这和伯尼·麦道夫的骗局是同一个道理。别人借我们钱，我们是怎么还的？——再去借新债。 So the Chinese know they’re in this box. The US government, we don’t pay ourbills. We’re like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back？We borrow more.
麦道夫早期的客户确实能把钱要回来，为什么？因为麦道夫仍然在吸收新钱，骗那些还不知道这是庞氏骗局的人入会。财政部也在做同样的事情，国债到期了怎么办？——再把它卖给其他人。需要支付利息怎么办？——照借不误。如果有一天谁也不愿再买我们的国债了，那就只能违约，和麦道夫一样。违约只有两条途径，要么直接宣布不还，要么印钱。这就是这些债务唯一可能的结局，反正它们不可能被偿还。中国人当然知道这一切，我们很快就会明白。 If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money, they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. Theyfound another sucker who didn’t know it was a Ponzi scheme.Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures, we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt, we go borrow that too. Well, it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money, then we re going to have to default, just like Bernie did.And there’s only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don’t pay, or we print money. That’s it. There’s only two ways to repudiate your debt. There’s no way we re going to figure that out.
在我看来，与其把麦道夫投进监狱，我们不如任命他为财政部部长（台下听众狂笑），因为他的经验是我们最最需要的——那就是玩“庞氏骗局”的经验。（台下大笑） And, of course, I said, instead of putting Bernie Madoff in jail, we should just make him Secretary of the Treasury. Because he’s got a lot of experience, exactlythe kind that we need, running a Ponzi scheme.
【上述见美国欧洲太平洋资本有限公司总裁彼得．希夫（Peter Schiff，president of EuroPacific Capital）2009年7月12日在米塞斯研究院的演讲《为什么我们不应对金融危机感到意外》（Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One）摘要】
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